The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is still about two weeks away, but the National Hurricane Center on Friday resumed issuing its Tropical Weather Outlook for the basin.
The daily outlooks show which areas of disturbed weather across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf have the potential for tropical cyclone development.
Friday's outlook showed no tropical cyclone activity is anticipated over the next seven days, which is typical for mid-May.
The outlook is updated at least four times a day and serves as one of the tools for the public to monitor tropical threats well before they organize into a trackable cyclone.
The NHC uses a color-coded system that identifies the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days.
A yellow shaded area indicates a low chance of development, while an orange region signifies a medium probability, ranging from 40% to 60%. A red highlighted area indicates a high likelihood that a tropical cyclone could form.
New during the 2026 season, forecasters will introduce a gray “X” symbol to identify areas with little to no chance of development.
“Today, May 15, marks the first day of routine issuance of the Atlantic basin Tropical Weather Outlook in 2026,” the National Hurricane Center said in its first outlook. “This product describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days.”
Through most of the season, the outlook is updated at 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. EDT, except after the switch to standard time in November, when issuance times shift to 1 a.m., 7 a.m., 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. EST.
During an average year, the first named storm typically does not form until June 20, while the first hurricane usually does not develop until mid-August.
During quieter hurricane seasons, tropical cyclone formation can lag well behind those averages.
Early forecasts for the 2026 season suggest activity may trend below normal compared with more active seasons during the last several decades.
Seasonal forecasts are calling for roughly 13 named storms to form, with six of those expected to strengthen into hurricanes, while two could become major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 115 mph.
The first tropical storm of the season will receive the name of Arthur.
Forecasters say one of the primary reasons for the anticipated reduction in tropical activity is the expected emergence of El Niño conditions across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
The phenomenon influences weather patterns around the globe, including hurricane activity.
Stronger upper-level winds, as well as cooler water temperatures across parts of the basin, make the development of tropical disturbances more difficult.
Some climate models are showing the development of what is known as a “Super El Niño,” which occurs when water temperature anomalies exceed 2 degrees Celsius.
The event would have significant ramifications on world weather patterns, but whether it reaches historic levels during the hurricane season remains to be determined.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, with activity typically peaking from late August through early October.
