Dry air has taken over Florida, and increasing winds create a dangerous combination that increases the risk of wildfires starting and becoming erratic. The air over Florida is already dry. There are red flag warnings in effect for eastern Central Florida northward to northeast Florida on Friday. It is possible this warning continues on Saturday, likely expanding to other regions, as another cold front pushes through early Saturday and drives another surge of very dry air into the Sunshine State. Also, on Saturday, after the cold front passes, winds will increase across the entire state. This will make it especially dangerous if a fire starts, as it is more likely to grow and become erratic.
The following weather conditions will prompt the issuance of a red flag warning:
- In North Florida (National Weather Service offices Mobile, Tallahassee, Jacksonville): Relative humidity below 28 percent AND wind speed greater than 15 mph AND Energy Release Component (Fuel Model G) of 26 or higher.
- In Peninsular Florida (National Weather Service offices Tampa Bay Area, Melbourne, Miami, Key West): Relative humidity below 35 percent AND wind speed greater than 15 mph AND Energy Release Component (Fuel Model G) of 27 or higher.
2/6 | Breezy, dry conditions are expected today, and drought conditions are worsening. A Red Flag WARNING has been issued for this Friday afternoon. Please avoid open outdoor burning. #FLwx pic.twitter.com/6E83KQmiZO
— NWS Melbourne (@NWSMelbourne) February 6, 2026
What causes wildfires?
Between 1992 and 2013, five out of the six fires in the U.S. were caused by humans. Once a fire starts, whether from human activity or natural causes, the weather determines its potential spread and speed of growth. Knowing whether fire weather conditions are present and assessing how well local areas are maintained to prevent fires from spreading and threatening structures or people is crucial.
Florida has prescribed burns, which help prevent dangerous wildfires from occurring and spreading across Central Florida. Weather conditions are closely monitored to minimize smoke impacts on traffic and residents. On average, the Florida Forest Service authorities prescribed burns on more than 2 million acres annually to maintain the land and prevent future wildfires.
2/6 @ 8:30AM: As dry air continues to filter into South Florida in the wake of yesterday's frontal passage, the dual combo of (1) dry vegetation thanks to our longstanding drought & (2) low relative humidity could set the stage for enhanced fire behavior both today and tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/hL6zj3ADWr
— NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) February 6, 2026
How does the weather affect wildfires?
Lightning can start fires, especially if it strikes over dry vegetation. Once a fire is ignited, whether by lightning or by humans —on purpose or not—weather conditions can spread it. Drought, vegetation, humidity, temperatures, and winds are the key components that can spread a fire. Florida is under a drought. In fact, 78 percent of the state is at least under a severe drought and the extreme drought has now expanded from the central Panhandle region through North Florida.
Florida's dry season runs from October to May, with slight regional variation. At least 6 months of 'dryness' significantly strain springtime vegetation and ground moisture. It is precisely between the late spring and the early summer when the peak of wildfire season occurs. A drought could be the worst toward the end of the season, serving as lots of fuel for fires to rage. With abundant dry vegetation and low humidity, fires are readily fueled during much of the spring as fronts pull dry air from the north, keeping the atmosphere with minimal available moisture and allowing the fires to grow. Then there are the winds. Windy conditions after a cold front sweeps through facilitate the spread of fires. These are the two main reasons you might hear about "red flag warnings" across different parts of the state. These warnings alert residents to dangerous fire-weather conditions, particularly when humidity is low and winds are strong. Warm temperatures could also be a factor, along with low humidity and gusty winds. Warmth increases evaporation and, under favorable conditions, can also increase wildfire intensity.
Residents must take steps to prevent wildfires. Many areas in Florida, especially in Central and North Florida, still have local authorities issue burn bans because many residents continue to burn trash and other belongings, such as old documents. Please be aware of any burn bans in your area, along with the local weather conditions that could aid the propagation of fires.
