Catastrophic Milton is a Cat 4 hurricane with Central Florida still in the forecast path

The hurricane is down to 145 mph winds as of 8 a.m. Tuesday. Residents are urged to complete their hurricane preps as Milton will start to indirectly affect west central Florida later in the day.

AS OF 8 AM TUESDAY: Hurricane Milton is a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

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It had strengthened to a Category 5 with 180 mph Monday as its wind speeds grew by nearly 90 mph in about 24 hours. But it weakened later in the day as it underwent expected eyewall replacement.

The hurricane is roughly 545 miles southwest of Tampa, moving at 12 mph to the east-northeast.

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows the storm making landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday somewhere along the west coast of Florida, with Tampa Bay near the center of the path.

However, it is still too early to pinpoint the exact location of landfall. Minor fluctuations to the north or south of the current path will have large implications for Milton’s ultimate path and impacts.

Hurricane warnings have been extended to Florida's east coast, from the Indian River/St. Lucie county line north to Ponte Vedra Beach. Also, a storm surge warning is now in effect from the Volusia/Brevard county line north to the mouth of the St. Mary's River.

Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the hurricane is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland.

Milton is expected to bisect the State bringing widespread impacts to the west coast of Florida first, then to inland counties and eventually a large swath of eastern Florida.

It’s too early to pinpoint the exact location Milton will make landfall. Minor fluctuations to the north or south of the current path will have large implications for Milton’s ultimate landfall and impacts. Here's a look at regional impacts from Milton.

1 of 4  — Tampa Impacts.png

2 of 4  — Milton Central FL impacts.png

3 of 4  — Milton Jax Impacts.png

4 of 4  — So FL Impacts.png

While some weakening is anticipated, Milton is expected to transition into a larger (in size) hurricane at landfall, with impacts spreading over most of Florida as it bisects the State.

The Tampa Bay International Airport will halt flights at 9AM Tuesday. Schools in more than 20 counties are slated to close Tuesday. The University of Florida and several other colleges canceled classes this week. Milton poses an extremely serious threat to a large portion of Florida. Residents are urged to finalize preps and follow the orders of local officials.

Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the hurricane is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland.

Milton is expected to bisect the State bringing widespread impacts to the west coast of Florida first, then to inland counties and eventually a large swath of eastern Florida.

It’s too early to pinpoint the exact location Milton will make landfall. Minor fluctuations to the north or south of the current path will have large implications for Milton’s ultimate landfall and impacts. While some weakening is anticipated, Milton is expected to transition into a larger (in size) hurricane at landfall, with impacts spreading over most of Florida as it bisects the State.

Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center:

1. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. This is an extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so.
2. Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses Florida and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion of the entire Florida Peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas should be complete by Tuesday night since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday.
3. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of Florida well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected Tuesday night through early Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding will be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall threat.

Florida residents have about 24 hours to finalize their plans before Milton’s dangerous winds and water arrive. Make sure to follow subsequent forecasts and official notices or evacuations. Weather conditions will start to deteriorate for parts of western Florida on Tuesday, with the worst of the weather building early into Wednesday.

As always, only get your weather information from trusted sources. And be prepared to act quickly, if you are in an evacuation zone and are told to leave.