NASA is sending humans to the moon once again, with a mission to land astronauts on the surface in 2028. Beyond the moon, the agency wants to send humans to Mars. But are astronauts ready for the trip?
Johns Hopkins University research Mark Shelhamer asks that very question in his new book. He said that if a mission was sent to Mars now, it would be unsuccessful. For one thing, missions to the moon take just days. A Mars trip would take months, which brings its own set of challenges.
“The crew will be autonomous from Earth, assuming they can communicate,” Shelhamer said. “If they’re not in conjunction at opposite sides of the sun, communication delay can be 22 minutes one way. So, you’ve got an emergency. You're on your own. No such thing as an evacuation, no such thing as a coming home early in an emergency, no such thing as emergency resupply.”
Before any missions can be launched, Shelhamer said government agencies and commercial companies need more research before anyone can land on Mars. He said every mission, like missions to the International Space Station or the moon, should be treated as a research opportunity.
“We have not been sending people into space that long,” Shelhamer said. “We haven't sent that many [astronauts]… they haven't all been test subjects for [medical] experiments. There's a lot we don't know.”
Whether a crew is sent now or in 100 years, Shelhamer said there will always be uncertainty with a mission to Mars because it’s never been done before. As far as when that mission could launch, he thinks humans will go to mars in the next few decades.
“The Artemis program has taken over, and the immediate priority is going to the moon,” he said. “Not that that's a bad thing. That's sufficiently hard, right? Make no mistake. I do not mean to trivialize going back to the moon, but it pushes Mars off again by another decade at least. So, I'm going to say again, about 20 years after we decide that it's really the next priority destination. Can you do that while you're still exploring the moon? Of course, but probably takes more resources than are available to us at the moment. So, 2040s.”
