Orange County Public Schools is starting the new school year with a much bigger enrollment drop than district leaders expected. It has nearly 8,000 fewer students than it did last year, a decline even larger than the one it saw in 2025.
Superintendent Maria Vazquez told the school board Tuesday that, as part of the district’s 10th-day enrollment count, OCPS is currently showing about 7,672 fewer students than last year, though the numbers are still being reviewed.
That’s far more than the roughly 3,000-student decline OCPS projected at its State of the Schools address in June, when district officials warned the loss could mean about $27 million less in state funding.
Vazquez said district leaders had anticipated a larger decline than the state’s projection of a little more than 2,000 students. After reviewing enrollment data with principals, the district adjusted its budgets ahead of the school year.
That planning could limit the number of layoffs.
“The good news is that we are not going to see the number of layoffs that you would see with almost an 8,000 loss of students,” she said. “There will be some.”
What's driving the drop?
Vazquez said declining birth rates are a major factor, particularly in elementary schools. The district is also seeing a significant drop in its VPK enrollment.
She said the district is seeing declines at the middle and high school levels, too.
Vazquez also pointed to families choosing private schools or other educational options through Florida's expanded school choice and voucher programs.
“Certainly, there are some that are choosing other options, and I recognize and respect that,” she said.
The district is also looking at the effects of immigration changes and housing availability.
“We know that part of that has to do with declining birth rates, people are not having children,” she said. “Second, we have had the impact from the immigration status, which certainly we have no control over if the parents have to leave because their visas have not been renewed.”
The district said they are also waiting for more detailed information about families who were recruited back to OCPS last year. Vazquez said the district plans to cross-reference those families with this year's enrollment once the data is available.
She said the district had asked for a deeper breakdown of why families left, but the information it received was limited to broad categories.
OCPS is looking for ways to attract families back to district schools, including expanding school choice within the district. Officials recently opened the district's first baseball and softball microschool and plan to bring proposals for additional microschools to the school board.
Vazquez said the district will continue looking for ways to keep and attract families, including offering more choices such as microschools.
“We need to continue to listen to our families about why they’re leaving, what is it that we can do, (and) work together to provide those supports,” she said.
