Fertilizer prices are finally falling this week after news of a tentative peace deal with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. But for Ryan Poe, a fifth generation wheat farmer in Hartline, Wash., the headlines need a qualifier.
"Maybe a global supplier of fertilizer sees that kind of instant price change," Poe says. "But for me on the farm there's been no change in fertilizer price."
Poe already bought most of his fertilizer for the year. And this week he's putting what's left of it on the fields he needs to keep clear of weeds before he plants in the fall. Poe figures he spent roughly 23% more on fertilizer this spring than before the war.
"It's the sticker shock of, okay, yeah this is definitely higher than last year," Poe says.
Farmers are equally eager for relief from high diesel prices. But an updated U.S. Department of Agriculture commodities forecast last Thursday predicts energy and fertilizer prices won't go down substantially until 2027, putting the heartland in a further bind.
Before the turmoil in the Middle East, Poe was already dealing with flat wheat prices and rising equipment costs due to inflation and President Trump's second trade war in 10 years. It's a pile-on.
"It's just not a fun time to be in ag," Poe says. "It's hard when you see people around you that are at that point of giving up."
Where and what you farm can make a financial difference, though. Many farmers in the Midwest were able to lock in their fertilizer prices before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, in some cases due to lucky timing. They also get a lot of it from Canada.
"In all, things are looking better supply chain-wise. Things seem to have stabilized, or at least we've come to a new normal of what to expect," says Kevin Deinert, a grain farmer in the town of Mount Vernon, South Dakota.
Another form of relief has come from a recent tentative deal between the Trump administration and China resulting in large amounts of soybeans being purchased again. Now, Deinert and many of his neighbors are in full-blown speculation mode when it comes to buying fertilizer for next year.
They're weighing whether to start buying now while prices are falling. But uncertainty looms over their decision: whether the Iran deal will hold, or if some other unforeseen crisis like a weather disaster is just around the corner.
"Say, within the last 10 to 15 years I don't think we have seen things fluctuate as rapidly as we see now," Deinert says.
To cope, Deinert is being aggressive with buying and marketing and getting used to making quick decisions. Next-door in Iowa, soybean farmer Dave Walton decided to buy less fertilizer this year. As a result, he's using less, trying to stretch it out through the end of the year.
"Every time I pull a tractor into a field it just cost more because everything has gone up," Walton says. "The squeeze on our margin is real."
Walton thinks he can hang on in part due to recent federal relief aid. But the same may not be said for many of his neighbors. That could have devastating effects on the rural economy.
"I don't think that it's hyperbole to say that there could be quite a number of operations that are basically one bad year away from getting out of business," Walton says.
Iran peace deal or not, so many farmers in the Heartland were already going into 2026 on the financial brink. That recent USDA report also predicted that next year, overall business and production costs for farmers will still hit record highs.
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