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Why June hurricane strikes are rare in Florida

Satellite image of an area of disturbed weather over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 2022.
NOAA
Satellite image of an area of disturbed weather over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 2022.

While the Atlantic hurricane season is underway, some parts of the year are more active than others for residents of the Sunshine State.

Historically, June ranks as the third-quietest month for tropical cyclone activity affecting Florida, behind only July and November.

According to historical records, nearly three dozen tropical cyclones have impacted Florida during June, with only six at hurricane strength.

Tropical cyclone landfalls during the month of June.
Tropical cyclone landfalls during the month of June.

A recent system to nearly reach tropical storm status before impacting Florida occurred in 2022.

The system, which eventually became known as Alex, originated from the remnants of Hurricane Agatha in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

After crossing Central America, the system reorganized over the Gulf of Mexico and produced heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of South Florida.

The disturbance was not officially classified as a tropical cyclone until it emerged over the Atlantic Ocean after exiting the state.

The last designated tropical cyclone to make landfall in Florida during June was Tropical Storm Colin in 2016.

Colin developed over the Gulf of Mexico and impacted Florida's Big Bend region as a minimal tropical storm.

Because the cyclone remained relatively weak and disorganized, impacts were limited, with only minor damage reported.

To experience the last June hurricane in Florida, you have to go back to 1972 when Hurricane Agnes struck the Panhandle as a Category 1 cyclone.

Map of June's tropical cyclone impacts across Florida.
Map of June's tropical cyclone impacts across Florida.

The state has gone more than five decades without experiencing a June hurricane landfall, and it has been 10 years since a tropical storm made landfall during the month.

Around 94% of all tropical cyclones that impact Florida in June either form in the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf.

During the early summer months, these regions are often warm enough to support development, while large portions of the tropical Atlantic remain less favorable due to cooler sea-surface temperatures and plumes of dry air moving off the coast of Africa.

On average, the Atlantic basin produces only one named storm during June, with the climatological formation date occurring around June 20.

As the calendar advances deeper into hurricane season, areas that are favorable for tropical development expand eastward into the tropical Atlantic, allowing August and September to account for the majority of tropical cyclone landfalls along the Eastern Seaboard.

Impacts are typically more frequent during the La Niña and neutral phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation than during El Niño years, such as what the 2026 season is heading into.

El Niño events often feature hostile upper-level winds across the tropical Atlantic that can disrupt developing cyclones.

According to a study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, the Southeast U.S. averages roughly one hurricane strike during an El Niño season and between two to three hurricanes during a La Niña cycle.

El Niño impacts on the hurricane season.
El Niño impacts on the hurricane season.

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Andrew Wulfeck is a seasoned Digital Meteorologist and Content Producer with a robust background in broadcast news and digital strategy. Andrew's experience includes Fox Weather, CNN Newsource and First Coast News. Currently based in Jacksonville, Florida, he produces daily weather content across audio, video and digital platforms.