A (weather) tale of two different stories: Pre-Thanksgiving heat, post-Thanksgiving cooldown

If you’re looking for colder changes, you’re going to have to wait until after Thanksgiving. If you’re liking the warmer temperatures and sunny skies, pre-Thanksgiving week will be the week for you.

The chamber of commerce weather we’ve had this past week will have slight variations at two points this week. We have two cold fronts moving through the state, and although they don’t bring many changes, we expect the second to be stronger than the first.

The first cold front will push across the Panhandle and North Florida on Saturday. There’s a low chance of brief isolated passing showers during the afternoon. But as this front moves through the area, it will continue to lose its punch.

Jacksonville has not registered rain in 24 days. Saturday's cold front is unlikely to break this trend, as rain chances remain higher across inland North Florida counties

. After this cold front pushes through, we won’t notice much of a temperature change, but we will see drier air sinking across the area. The dry air will persist through Sunday and Monday. Then the winds will shift once again ahead of the next front that is expected to push through the Panhandle in North Florida on Wednesday, just before Thanksgiving.

This second cold front will bring temperatures down just in time for Thanksgiving. We’re going to go from temperatures in the low 80s to temperatures in the low 70s for Thanksgiving Day. On Thanksgiving, there could be a few showers across North Florida, especially in the afternoon. The Panhandle will have a greater chance of passing showers on Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and Thanksgiving will stay with a 20% chance of isolated passenger showers. However, dry air arriving in the afternoon will diminish the chances of showers along the I-10 corridor.

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For Black Friday, temperatures will be cold in the morning. Lows will stay around the mid-40s, while the afternoon will warm into the low 70s.

Remember that this dry air in place will become stronger with the push of the second cold front. This is a worrisome trend as we continue to deal with a dangerous drought. Many areas across the panhandle continue under a burn ban until further notice. Humidity levels will remain low after each front passes, and we expect breezy conditions just after it. This is a bad combination for wildfires. Please avoid anything that could spark or ignite fires.