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Fishkind Conversations: Strange Days For Financial Markets Don't Necessarily Mean Recession

90.7's economic analyst Dr. Hank Fishkind, President of Fishkind and Associates
90.7's economic analyst Dr. Hank Fishkind, President of Fishkind and Associates

“Unusual.” “Unprecedented.” Even “sort of bonkers.”

That’s how economic analyst Hank Fishkind describes financial markets recently.

Here’s one of the reasons why: US stocks have hit record highs, but at the same time, interest rates on US bonds have dropped to near-record lows. It’s quite unusual to have those opposite directions at the same time.

Also, the economic recovery that technically started in 2009 is starting to show its age – which at seven years, is well above average.

90.7's Nicole Creston asked Fishkind if this strange combination of market indicators means another recession is on the horizon.


Hank's Highlights:

  • Recessions typically come about because of the buildup of large imbalances that cannot be sustained, which is in part what triggered the Great Recession, or because of capacity constraints, or some political events such as unrest or war
  • Certain market indicators can be harbingers of recession, but, as odd as the stocks and bonds markets' recent movements may look, they do not appear to be heralding imminent recession
  • Florida and Central Florida in particular benefit from low interest rates and continued steady growth in U.S. jobs and incomes. So from that limited local perspective, the current economic condition with all of its uncertainty is overall quite beneficial
Nicole came to Central Florida to attend Rollins College and started working for Orlando’s ABC News Radio affiliate shortly after graduation. She joined Central Florida Public Media in 2010. As a field reporter, news anchor and radio show host in the City Beautiful, she has covered everything from local arts to national elections, from extraordinary hurricanes to historic space flights, from the people and procedures of Florida’s justice system to the changing face of the state’s economy.