Environment & Climate

Could Central Florida run out of water? A pending plan seeks to avoid that outcome

Central Florida Public Media | By Molly Duerig

Published September 13, 2025 at 8:02 AM EDT

By the year 2045, demand for water in the region will be up 41%, according to the Central Florida Water Initiative.

A twenty-year water supply plan for the Central Florida region is almost officially ready, following the Central Florida Water Initiative steering committee’s approval Friday of the plan’s latest draft. The plan analyzes existing water resources and outlines strategies for area stakeholders to try and get ahead of an anticipated water shortage.

By the year 2045, the region including Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Polk and southern Lake counties will likely face a groundwater shortfall of an estimated 96 million gallons of water a day, according to the plan. That estimate is based on projections of future population growth and water demand.

Twenty years from now, the region’s population is expected to be 40% larger than it is today. Along with that population boom, water regulators anticipate a corresponding 41% spike in water demand, according to the draft plan.

A map of the five-county area included in the Central Florida Water Initiative.

The Central Florida Water Initiative is a collaborative water supply planning effort for the region where the boundaries of Florida’s three largest water management districts come together. The St. Johns River, South Florida and Southwest Florida water management districts are core members of the initiative, along with water utilities, various community stakeholders and the state’s departments of environmental protection and agriculture.

The region’s primary drinking water source is groundwater from the underground Floridan aquifer system, a massive geologic formation spanning 100,000 square miles across all of Florida, plus parts of three other Southeast states.

According to the plan, “declines in groundwater levels, spring flows, river flows, lake levels, and wetlands quality have occurred as a result of groundwater development … Therefore, additional alternatives to fresh groundwater need to be developed and implemented to meet the projected water demands.”

The plan calls for water management districts, local governments and other community stakeholders to partner on more alternative water supply projects, like ones relying on lakes and other surface waters, or reclaimed water, meaning wastewater that’s treated and recycled for a specific use.

Right now, the region uses about 228 millions of gallons of reclaimed water daily for irrigation, industrial uses, groundwater recharge and environmental enhancement, according to the plan. Reclaimed water isn’t currently used for drinking water in Florida, but that could change in the future.

Members of the Central Florida Water Initiative's steering committee met at the St. Johns River Water Management District's Apopka office on September 12, 2025, where committee members approved a draft regional water supply plan to move onto the next phase of consideration.

The plan currently approaching final approval identifies 126 options for water supply and water resource development projects, plus 24 options for projects focused on water conservation. “These options have the potential to generate significant water to meet future needs,” according to the plan.

Chris Farrell with Audubon Florida spoke during a public comment period at Friday’s meeting, describing the pending plan as “a vital tool for shaping Central Florida’s water future.”

But Farrell said the plan could still be improved even more before it’s finalized. “I think we have a lot more room for conservation here,” he said.

Additionally, Farrell said he’d like to see the region make even more use of reclaimed water, which typically travels through purple infrastructure pipes.

“We should highlight the need to prioritize [groundwater] recharge, wetland restoration, potable reuse: things that strengthen our water security and our environmental resilience, moving forward,” Farrell said. “Right now … the purple pipes go in to irrigate lawns and neighborhoods, and it reinforces the water-intensive development patterns that we have in Florida.”

David Gore brought a sign he made to the September 12 Central Florida Water Initiative's meeting. The sign questions the water regulators' use of the term "alternative water supply," Gore said:"[The water] is all coming from the same place." — David Gore brought a sign he made to the September 12 Central Florida Water Initiative's meeting. The sign questions the water regulators' use of the term "alternative water supply," Gore said. "[The water] is all coming from the same place," he said, referring to the underground aquifer system.

David Gore of Haines City is also concerned about water-intensive development. The 87-year-old who spent years building airboats in the 1960s and 1970s said over time, he’s noticed shrinking lake levels and other drastic changes to the region’s water resources.

“I'm surprised at what people can get away with developing nowadays. They can go in a wetland area or floodplain and just completely drain it,” Gore said. “I would like to see that we tried better to protect what we’ve got left.”

Following the CFWI’s unanimous vote of approval Friday, the draft plan will now go before each of the three water management districts for approval in November. It should be finalized by the end of the year.