Election Day is Tuesday. And so far, 5.1 million people have voted early or by mail.
Midterm elections typically have a lower turnout than presidential cycles. In the last one, four years ago, nearly 7.8 million people voted, according to the Florida Division of Elections.
This year's numbers are on track to surpass the 2022 election.
Sean Freeder is an associate professor at the University of North Florida and the faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab.
He said early voting numbers can predict higher numbers later, but people may also be adjusting to having multiple weeks to vote. Still, he anticipates a “high turnout election,” based on trends they’ve tracked over the past decade.
And he thinks a lot of this year’s high turnout is driven by President Trump.
“I do think that one, when you raise the stakes, people are more likely to turn out in midterms, and two, people turn out in higher rates in presidential elections because the presidents on the ballot — that's what people really tend to care about,” he said.
Of course, Donald Trump is not on this ballot. But many people are voting as if he were. And Freeder said that’s typical in midterm elections.
“We talk about a midterm curse in political science where, just tends to be the case over the past 40 or 50 years, your party wins the presidency,” he said. “Two years later, like a pendulum swinging back and forth, you can pretty much predict that party is going to have a tough run of it in that following midterm.”
Top issues vary by age
Your Florida asked people what's driving their votes this November. For most Democrats, at least one of three topics came up: affordability, the Iran war, and corruption.
For Republicans, responses varied by age.
Michael Fusella, a recent University of South Florida graduate and former president of the campus College Republicans club, said affordability and immigration are some of his top issues.
"And then foreign policy as well, that's another very important one to me," he said. "Especially being intertwined in the Iran War. Not very good. I don't like to see that at all. Wasn't promised that, and (I) feel quite betrayed by that foreign policy blunder that Trump created."
But Laura Casati, who lives in Tallahassee and works with horses, said she thought the war in Iran was needed and that higher fuel prices aren't an issue.
"I've been through high gas prices before. I am a hard worker. I must work for a living, and so what? Stop whining. It's gonna change," she said. "It's going to change. It's gonna be amazing. And Trump is very aware of how to restore our oil reserves. Ultimately, I'm aware of the oil markets and how it can fluctuate."
UNF's Freeder said the disconnect between the two is something he's seeing more of.
"You really do see this age-based break," he said. "Older voters seem much more willing to stick with Trump, be less disappointed, provide more excuses for why things might be going wrong, and you know this is not really a break from history. Younger people are just much more deeply dissatisfied with the way things are, and so I think they feel it, they're not used to being disappointed because they're so young and they're voting, so at their first disappointment, they're more willing to break with the party."
Freeder said it's similar for some Democrats too.
What's driving your vote?
Like Lynn Miller, a registered Democrat who lives in a retirement community in Ocala.
"Primarily it's the corruption from above, tearing down the White House, starting a war in Iran," she said. "People here (are) paying $5, $6 for gas, they're cutting Medicaid, Medicare is being impacted, but it really boils down to corruption, in my opinion."
Daniel Lack also lives in a retirement community in Ocala. He said the one issue driving his vote "is the survival of our democracy."
Randi Sathan is a Democrat in Manatee County. At a WUSF listening session, she said Republicans and Democrats need to come together "to save our democracy and to make Florida the place where we want to live again for all Floridians."
"I think the biggest issue driving this election in November is that we have to save our democracy," she said.
Youshay Wasim is a registered Democrat in Brandon. He said he's watching the Senate race "because that will decide whether we want accountability, or we just want continued corruption."
"I want to see corruption being handled and I want to see the cost of living go down and I only see one side attempting that right now," he said. "I really want Angie Nixon to win because you know the Senate (has) a lot of power over investigations, and I want some things done in that regard. But she also has plans, and I'm excited about those plans because the other side has no plans."
The DSA divide
Remember our earlier Republican voter, Michael Fusella? He said he abstained from voting in the governor's race but couldn't bring himself to vote for Angie Nixon for U.S. Senate because of her alignment with the Democratic Socialist movement. Other Republicans have voiced similar concerns.
UNF polling shows Nixon four points behind incumbent Senator, Republican Ashley Moody.
"She's still within striking distance," Freeder said. "Four points is not that much in elections that used to be 15 or 20 points won by the Republican back in 2022 and 2020."
And he said there isn't strong evidence the "socialism" label is hurting her.
"The sort of main attacks within the Senate race: Nixon saying Ashley Moody's embroiled in this Hope Florida scandal, Moody saying Nixon's a socialist, and we asked in our poll, which of those things is concerning to you?" Freeder said. "And we found that there was a greater amount of concern around Hope Florida than there really was about socialism."
But at the end of the day, Freeder said Florida is still a red state. Even with a lot of enthusiasm behind Nixon, that might not push her over the edge.
"But I do think that just the enthusiasm of having her on the ballot could drive a bunch of younger people to come out and vote for Nixon. Yeah, while they're there, they'll also check the box for Jolly," Freeder said.
David Jolly, the Democrat running for governor against Republican Byron Donalds, is a former Republican and a moderate candidate. Freeder said the two candidates are helping each other out.
While Jolly doesn't excite younger, more left-leaning Democrats like Nixon does, he is convincing some Republicans to cross party lines. UNF polls show him two points under Donalds.
"I think that Jolly is in a better position to be competitive," Freeder said. "I think that you know him winning is a very real possibility."
If you have any questions about state government or the legislative process, you can ask the Your Florida team by clicking here.
This story was produced by WUSF as part of a statewide journalism initiative funded by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
