The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the potential for a low-pressure system to develop late in the upcoming workweek just east of Florida.
As we begin the week, there is no organized area of low pressure. However, as the week progresses, a weak area of low pressure could develop just off the Carolina coast. This would be associated with the remnants of a frontal boundary that will stall along the eastern seaboard of the United States. If a low develops, it is expected to drift westward or west-northwestward initially. As of Sunday evening, the National Hurricane Center is giving this system a 10% chance of tropical development over the next seven days.
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It is common during the early part of hurricane season for leftover energy from stalled or dissipating frontal boundaries to help produce short-lived tropical or subtropical systems.
Before any potential development occurs, the frontal boundary will increase rain chances across portions of Florida. Otherwise, easterly winds will continue to dominate much of the peninsula, while hot and humid conditions remain firmly in place. This combination will bring a typical summertime weather pattern through the beginning of the week across Central and South Florida. High temperatures, abundant humidity, and daytime heating will allow the sea breezes to trigger scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Storms will develop over the interior before gradually moving toward the Gulf Coast during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Across North Florida and the Panhandle, shower and thunderstorm activity will increase on Tuesday as the frontal boundary approaches. The greatest rain coverage is expected along the Interstate 10 corridor, from Pensacola eastward to Jacksonville. Although the front will attempt to push southward, it is expected to move slowly before eventually stalling and dissipating. Once the front weakens and dissipates offshore, conditions could become somewhat more favorable for a weak tropical or subtropical low to develop.
At this time, however, the system is not expected to move toward Florida. High pressure centered over the southeastern United States should steer any developing low away from the peninsula, keeping it offshore. While we'll continue to monitor the system throughout the week, there are currently no indications of a direct impact to Florida.
