September is usually a busy month in the tropics. Although Labor Day Weekend and the peak date have remained relatively quiet in recent seasons, we closely monitor the tropics, as the situation may change for the second half of the month.
If no storms form between August 29 and September 16, 2025, it will become only the second year since 1950 with this characteristic, joining 1992.Colorado State University
September is a notable month as much of the Atlantic Basin is fair game for tropical storms to form. It is during this month that more tropical waves emerge from Africa, which, luckily, gives us plenty of time to monitor. Too much time sometimes! On average, an emerging tropical wave can take over 12 days to reach the western Caribbean or the United States.
Historical records indicate that most hurricanes have developed approximately 1,000 miles west of the Caribbean, following a path that swings northward, often staying close to Bermuda. However, historically, the western Caribbean and Gulf have been hotspots for tropical storm formation in September. This places Florida in a special place with the likelihood of being impacted from either direction. The western Caribbean and Gulf are hot spots because, at times, energy left behind by fronts that start to swing through the nation is carried far enough south, and some of this energy might be just enough to spin a tropical system.
Where the heck are the Atlantic #hurricanes? While we don't claim to know exactly why it's gotten so quiet, we have written a discussion on the season to date, some drivers of the lull as well as some thoughts on the remainder of the season.https://t.co/D3WZlEdzd2 pic.twitter.com/Z1AG5qskPa
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 9, 2025
September's most recent and notorious storms have been Ike (2008), Irma and Maria (2017), and Hurricane Ian in 2022. All storms were significant not only because of the devastation and millions in damage, but also because of the high death tolls.
The second part of the month could come charged, so please don't let your guard down. A slow start to the month, even though it is historically the peak of the season, does not mean the season will remain quiet. Remember 2024? There was deep silence, and then a stretch of several powerful storms formed. Hurricane Helene developed late September, leaving catastrophic flooding in the Carolinas. Several other storms stayed over water, then came Milton, which had rain bands that swept across Florida. This doesn't mean that we will have a repeat of 2024, but it shows that there could be a worst-case scenario after some quiet weeks, and what has seemed like a "benign" season so far.