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After National Recession Scare, Florida Expert Gauges Risk to the State's Economy

Anthony Matesic, a designated market maker, follows stock prices at the New York Stock Exchange, earlier this month.

The Florida economy is still expected to grow despite a recession scare. 

On Wednesday, the market saw an inverted yield curve for the first time since 2007. 

But University of Central Florida’s Sean Snaith says other indicators like job growth and wage gains suggest the economy is healthy. 

He says that’s why he’s predicting the country’s economy will continue to grow with Florida’s economy outpacing it. 

"Having consumers in a good position with rising wages and solid labor market outlooks that certainly helps to support the tourism sector of the economy and some of the longer term drivers of Florida's economy in terms of demographics and the trends that are in place there."

[audio mp3="https://www.wmfe.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/economy.mp3"][/audio]

Snaith says the agricultural sector in Florida is bearing the brunt of the trade war with China that caused the stock market to drop this week. 

But he says farmers here are not fairing as badly as they are in other parts of the country like the Midwest.

Plus he says other sectors remain virtually untouched. 

“Construction sector, professional business services, healthcare, and finance you know all these non-ag sectors are not really showing much impact from what’s happening in the trade situation.”

[audio wav="https://www.wmfe.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/13002_RECESSION_DANIELLE.wav"][/audio]

Snaith says short term bonds outperformed long term bonds yesterday which can be an indicator of a recession. 

But he says foreign investors moving money to American accounts away from political unrest in their own countries could be artificially driving down long term bond yields.  
If you'd like to listen to the story, please click on the clip above. 

Danielle Prieur covers education in Central Florida.